Robert Shiller Interview on U.S. Housing Market – Video


May 31, 2011
Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, talks about the outlook for home prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities fell 3.6 percent from March 2010, the biggest year-over-year decline since November 2009, the group said today in New York. At 138.16, the gauge was the weakest since March 2003. Shiller speaks with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.”

SOURCE: Bloomberg

Case-Shiller home-price index hits new low

Is now the time to buy?

An index of home prices in the nation’s largest American cities plumbed new depths in March, pushing past a low set during the worst of the Great Recession.

The ominous new drop for the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 cities, a key measure that is closely watched by economists, casts further doubt about the future of the housing market’s recovery. The index pushed below its previous bottom hit in April 2009, confirming a much-feared double-dip in home prices.

“This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P index committee, said. “Home prices continue on their downward spiral with no relief in sight.”

The Case-Shiller index showed prices dropped 3.6% from March 2010 and 0.8% from February amid weak demand for homes and a strong market presence for cheap foreclosures and other so-called distressed properties.

[pullquote_right]This month’s report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation[/pullquote_right]The housing market appeared to be headed toward recovery last year, but those gains were largely driven by a popular credit for buyers. Sales and prices have been weak since then.

“Excluding the results of that policy, there has been no recovery or even stabilization in home prices during or after the recent recession,” Blitzer said. “Further, while last year saw signs of an economic recovery, the most recent data do not point to renewed gains.”

Weighing on prices has been the large number of foreclosure properties on the market and a lack of demand from buyers since the credit’s expiration. With prices falling again, economists fear that the nation’s housing market could enter a new downward spiral, with declines pushing more borrowers underwater, triggering more foreclosures and setting off further drops.

Although economists say there are many factors in favor of purchasing a home — including increased affordability and rock-bottom interest rates — falling prices influence buyer psychology because people don’t want to lose money on an investment that may drop in value in the near term.

Twelve of the 20 cities tracked by the index posted fresh lows in March. Those cities were Atlanta; Charlotte, N.C.; Chicago; Cleveland; Detroit; Las Vegas; Miami; Minneapolis; New York; Phoenix; Portland, Ore.; and Tampa, Fla.

Other than Washington, all of the major cities tracked by the index posted a year-over-year decline. Los Angeles was down 1.7%, San Diego fell 4.0%, and San Francisco dropped 5.1%.

When left unadjusted for seasonal variations, 18 out of the 20 cities declined from February to March, with Los Angeles down 0.3%, San Diego down 0.8% and San Francisco falling 0.1%. Seattle, up 0.1%, and Washington, up 1.1%, were the only two cities to post month-over-month gains.]

SOURCE: LATimes

Home Prices Edge Closer to 2009 Lows According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

New York, April 26, 2011 – Data through February 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading [pullquote_right]As of
February 2011, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels where they were in the
summer of 2003.[/pullquote_right]measure of U.S. home prices, show prices for the 10- and 20-city composites are lower than a year ago but still slightly above their April 2009 bottom.

The 10- City Composite fell 2.6% and the 20-City Composite was down 3.3% from February 2010 levels. Washington D.C. was the only market to post a year-over-year gain with an annual growth rate of +2.7%.

Ten of the 11 cities that made new lows in January 2011 saw new lows again in February 2011

To read the complete “Press Release” click here

S&P Case-Shiller Index Records Another Drop in Home Prices

Data released Tuesday morning by Standard & Poor’s show that home prices are continuing to trend downwards.

The 10-city and 20-city composites of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index fell 0.9 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively, in January 2011 when compared to the previous month.

The 10-city composite is down 2.0 percent from its January 2010 level, while the 20-city reading dropped 3.1 percent on a year-over-year basis.

San Diego and Washington D.C. were the only two markets to record positive year-over-year changes. However, San Diego was up a scant 0.1 percent, while Washington D.C. posted a healthier 3.6 percent annual gain.

The same 11 cities that had posted recent index level lows in December 2010, posted new lows in January from their 2006/2007 peaks: Atlanta, Charlotte, Chicago, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, New York, Phoenix, Portland, Seattle, and Tampa.

“Keeping with the trends set in late 2010, January brings us weakening home prices with no real hope in sight forthe near future” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor’s.

“These data confirm what we have seen with recent housing starts and sales reports,” Blitzer continued. “The housing market recession is not yet over, and none of the statistics are indicating any form of sustained recovery. At most, we have seen all statistics bounce along their troughs; at worst, the feared double-dip recession may be materializing.”

Blitzer explained that S&P defines a double-dip for home prices as seeing the 10- and 20-city composites set new post-peak lows.

He noted that the 10-city composite is still 2.8 percent higher and the 20-city is 1.1 percent above their respective April 2009 lows, but he warns that both series have moved closer to a confirmed double-dip for six consecutive months.

“At this point we are not too far off, and that is what many analysts are seeing with sales, starts, and inventory data too,” Blitzer said.

Looking deeper at market-level results, S&P found that Atlanta has now joined Cleveland, Detroit, and Las Vegas as markets where average home prices are currently below their January 2000 levels.

The agency’s report states that Washington D.C. appears to be the only market that has weathered the recent storm.

It’s the only market to post a month-over-month gain in January, and its annual rate of return is the healthiest among all cities included in the study. Home prices in Washington D.C. are still 10.7 percent above their March 2009 low, and almost 85 percent above the city’s January 2000 index level.

SOURCE: DS News.